India Election Watch #Day4

This week our election coverage continues with not one but two posts (I hope you are suitably impressed). If you are new here, and would like to start from the beginning (or begin from the start) please click here and read from the bottom up and you will soon be fully up-to-date. 

Firstly, it gives me great pleasure to welcome Ad Absurdum's first guest columnist in its eight-year history. Sujaya Jacob is currently pursuing an undergraduate degree in politics and international relations. In her first piece for us, she gives her take on what has been (and continues to be) arguably the most widely-discussed tv event in the history of Indian politics- Rahul Gandhi's interview with Arnab Goswami. At last count, it has had over 2 million views on YouTube, and with the general elections just over three months away, it is entirely possible it will have considerable implications for both the Congress party and the country as a whole. 

Aside from politics and foreign policy, Sujaya's wide-ranging interests include writing, fashion, travel, and George Clooney; not necessarily in that order.

Dear Rahul, step away from the Goswamis.

I must admit I heard the jokes and read the memes much before I actually watched the now infamous Rahul Gandhi -Arnab Goswami Times Now interview.(If you have been living under a rock, or are just fortunate enough to be born politically apathetic, you can find this piece of comic relief in its entirety below.)



A number of things struck me about the interview; firstly how intensely and passionately my disdain for Arnab Goswami had grown since the last time I was revelling in his journalistic buffoonery (the Narendra Modi interview? or was it Salman Khan?). How he had somehow become the poster boy for mainstream Indian political journalism and discourse -when did this happen? How did we let it happen? When will it stop? (The nation should want to know!). But that is best left for another time. 

Secondly, and perhaps most significantly, was how incredibly unprepared the young Gandhi was for what was touted to be his tv interview debut; his first sit -down interview in over ten years. I watched as he incorporated women’s empowerment and inclusive economic growth into every question he was asked; a little bit like an aspiring beauty pageant queen and her over-eagerness for world peace. I listened as he tried and failed repeatedly to dodge Goswami’s unrelenting attempts to pit ‘The Gandhi’ against ‘The Modi’ (but Rahul, please answer the question I am asking). I winced as he fumbled awkwardly through what he considered to be the achievements of the UPA’s ten-year tenure in power. I watched as his eyes darted around the room, looking perhaps for a friendly face and a knowing smile (rumour has it big sister Priyanka Gandhi was in the room for the duration of the interview). I sighed as key terms (RTI, anyone?) regularly interjected poorly-structured arguments. And I watched as he referred to himself in the third-person before switching to the first-person with all the grammatical prowess of a shy 5th grader. 

Occasionally, from the darkness of an extremely well lit room, Rahul Gandhi was allowed enough air- time to talk about what it meant to sit through the funerals of his assassinated grandmother and father respectively; what it means to have lived his life with the inescapable looming landscape of Indian political history at his back. However, there is little or no room for sentimentality in newsroom studios crowded with a crew clamouring for instant headlines and showy one-liners. So, while Mr Gandhi’s readiness for political leadership may be debatable, one thing is for sure- he is not prepared for the onslaught of Goswami and his ilk. 

Dear Rahul, step away from the Goswamis.

And so the Delhi experiment, one that started on a cold winter's day in December, has ended 49 days later. Arvind Kejriwal has resigned as the Chief Minister and is now back to being just another 'Aam Aadmi', albeit one who is now preparing his party for the national elections. 

The AAP came to power on a wave of hope and optimism, and much of that has now given way to confusion and despair. Questions remain on what it all means, and whether the AAP is really a viable option as a national party. Others see Delhi as just the first act in a larger political game. Only time will tell. 

In the meantime, however, a couple of folks have weighed in with their opinions. I have been following Captain Gopinath's blog-posts for some time now, and they have always come across as interesting and insightful; particularly when appearing to be at odds with Kejriwal and the AAP, a party he is a member of. His latest post is perhaps, in my opinion, his most articulate yet. It attempts to explain some of the circumstances surrounding the government's early demise, offers a glimpse of what lies ahead, and even takes in a quote by Wordsworth along the way. I would recommend you read the full post here. 

Meanwhile, someone else whose posts I have been following, and whose name I have invoked before, is Mani Shankar Aiyar. In his latest post, probably published within minutes of Kejriwal vacating his chair, he has listed about 20 bullet points- each one mocking the AAP's tenure in power. In fact, you get the sense that this obituary- of-sorts was drafted well before the death occurred; such is the perverse glee that emanates from it. It is an astonishing piece of writing; its triumphant, I-told-you-so note deeply disturbing. For reasons completely different from the previous link, I recommend reading the full post here. 

If these pontifications are intended to come off as brave and defiant in the face of near-certain electoral defeat, I personally don't think it is working. Instead, they are making him look either arrogant, ignorant or in denial, and sometimes all three at the same time. He is starting to remind me of the Iraqi minister who appeared on tv interviews at the start of the Iraq war in 2003, proudly proclaiming that Bhagdad is secure, even as the tanks were slowly rolling up behind him. I am now increasingly convinced that Ronan Keating was thinking of Mr. Aiyar when he sang- you say it best, when you say nothing at all. 

If I was to be so bold as to offer this seasoned politician some advice, it would be this: Please, Mr. Aiyar, please just stop. Please stop listing problems and start listing solutions. And if you are going to reflect, reflect on the state of our great nation rather than the shortcomings of other individuals and political parties. Reflect on the more than 50 years your own party has been in power, and reflect on the reasons why Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party have come into being. Then, maybe, just maybe, we will listen to what you have to say.

India Election Watch #Day 3

Amid the growing speculation over the past few days that RG will be declared the PM candidate for the Congress, the AAP is discovering the truth in the old adage- a week in politics is like an eternity. If this is true for politics in general, it is even truer for politics in India. Add the fact that the general election is in a few months time, and you have on your hands a political drama that is nearly as compelling as a good Mohanlal movie. 

For one thing, the Congress did not name RG as their PM candidate at their conclave yesterday. Shock, horror. (Genuine shock, horror. Not sarcastic) He will, instead, be in charge of their campaign. His new role began almost immediately as he delivered a 40 minute speech in both Hindi and English with a passion that bordered on inspirational. Question is, is it too little, too late? 

Meanwhile, the sitting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sat on the stage (Yes that is the end of that sentence because that is all there is to say about it). At various points in the speech, when RG mentioned him specifically by name, he barely turned his head. When the crowd cheered and clapped, he barely twitched his arm. He seems like a man who, having played the part of puppet for so long, is now method acting. The actor is indistinguishable from the character; the man has become his own caricature. It is sad that for a man of his stature, it has finally come to this. Assuming of course, it is actually him. I wouldn't be surprised if they had just placed an inflatable doll on the stage. Come to think of it, a doll with just a few head movements and a serene gaze wouldn't be too hard to conjure up for a party that has been, in some form or another, responsible for far more impressive feats. (And for our next trick, we will make 300 crores of public money disappear *whoosh*) 

In other news in this past week, two of the more articulate ministers in the Congress party chimed in with their own assessments of the AAP. First up was Jairam Ramesh who must have been addressing a group of children at some kind of amusement park. That is the only context in which his statements would make sense. Judge for yourselves: "Don't make fun of them. Making fun of them would be proved wrong" His comments then took on a more philosophical/mythological bent (the children must have been confused) "AAP is like Dashavatar. In different states it can have different avatars." 

This is all very interesting but exactly who is making fun of AAP? Is this what is now passing for serious political discourse in this county? 

Next up was Mani Shankar Aiyar, a man who whose words are a bit like Dennis Bergkamp's goals- when they come, you can expect them to be outrageous. (Editor's note: Apologies to readers who don't follow football, but this blog is committed to supporting sports besides cricket.) 

Here are some of the gems from his opinion piece that appeared in a leading news site: 

"Apart from helping Kejriwal decide whether to brush his teeth with Colgate or Pepsodent, there is precious little that mohalla sabhas (in reference to a model of grass-roots governance currently being championed by AK) will achieve until the constitutional and legal structures are in place."

"...So, even if the AAP's head is in the wrong place, their hearts are in the right place. Not bad for a beginning. They can be taught. They can learn..." 

The combination of condescension and arrogance is both sad and amusing at the same time. By making politics sound like something only an exalted few are able to comprehend and carry out, he is exhibiting precisely the same kind of hubris that plagues the rest of the party. With all due respect, Mr Aiyar, where was all this verbal artistry when one scam after another rocked the country? When anger spilled out onto the streets in the wake of the gang rape in Delhi just over a year ago? 

It is entirely predictable that members of the Congress, having been swept out of power in Delhi, are now taking great pleasure in punching holes in AAP's methods, but people like Mr Aiyar need to remember that for the last decade, and indeeed many years before that, his party had the solemn privilege of governing this great country. They would do well to ask themselves if it is truly- economically, socially and politically- in a better state now than it was then. Everything else is just rhetoric. Leaving aside the percentages and the victory margins and everything else for a moment, how will history judge the current administration? 

Update: Dennis Bergkamp scores again- I mean Mani Shankar Aiyar speaks again: At yesterday's Congress meeting, he was quoted as saying the following in reference to NM (Roughly translated from Hindi) "There is no way he can be Prime Minister in the 21st century... but if he wants to come and distribute tea here we can make some room for him."  

Less said the better.

India Election Watch #Day 2

It is a well-known fact that those people who must want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it... anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job.  
- Douglas Adams 

Editor's note: While I am normally of the view that reducing people's names to their initials is both rude and lazy, I fear that over the next few weeks and months there's a good chance I will wear out the letters on my keyboard that spell the names Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal. I did consider using either just their first or last names but decided that Mr Gandhi, Mr Modi, etc., sounds too formal and Narendra, Arvind, etc., makes me sound like I went to school with them. They will, therefore, be known from here on as RG, NM and AK respectively. Thanks.

What is interesting about these upcoming elections is how much it has become about personalities. There have been elections in India that have been run and won on the back of either personality (or, in most cases, a Gandhi name) but I don’t think there's ever been a straight fight between three individuals like we have with AK, RG and NM. 

In the British general elections in 2010, there was a similar three-way contest between David Cameron (Conservatives), Gordon Brown (Labour) and Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats). Most of the media coverage was centred on these three individuals, and sections of the British public bemoaned the fact that personality was driving public opinion more than ideology. With the introduction of American-style TV debates, there was even more of a worry that the campaign would turn into a spectacle of style over substance. As it turned out, Nick Clegg, who was unanimously declared winner of the debates, finished third in the polls. This seemed to prove that a sharp suit and good diction may give you a slight lift in the opinion polls, but by no means guarantees victory, something that no doubt came as a relief to many.

There is nothing inherently wrong with building a campaign around an individual. Corporate organisations, sports teams and even mass movements can thrive under a good leader, someone to rally the troops. The danger in doing this in politics, in my view, is that your brand can become indistinguishable from the individual, and individuals tend to disappoint other individuals a lot quicker than policies can. As a result, the brand's credibility can often be seriously undermined by one person's misdemeanours. There are several examples of this in Indian politics, and yet time and time again political parties make the same mistake.

Also, and I think this is even more significant in a non-presidential type of government such as India’s, this does not factor in the importance of a good team. It sounds obvious, but a Prime Minister or Leader of Opposition is only as good as his or her team of ministers. It seems to me that by placing the focus on the team rather than pinning your hopes on an individual, you're more likely to succeed. A cricketing analogy might be stretching the point a little, but- if you have a Tendulkar, Dravid, Laxman and Ganguly in a team, it's almost irrelevant who the captain is. 

I think the Congress was likely thinking along these lines by steadfastly refusing to name a PM candidate in 2004. This ensured all options remained on the table and they were also able to maintain a semblance of inner-party democracy. In 2009, they persevered with the incumbent Manmohan Singh, but in 2014 the equation has changed. With the BJP announcing NM early on as their nominee, the Congress has increasingly been feeling the pressure to do the same. Personally, I think it would be great if they stuck to their policy of not ‘anointing’ anyone, but I think they will and I think it will be RG. 

Perhaps the reason they haven’t done so already is because they know the Gandhi name is no longer an advantage; in fact, in the current climate it may well end up having a negative effect. At the same time, if they name someone other than RG, people will think of that person as a puppet in the Manmohan Singh mould. So it’s essentially damned if they do, and damned if they don't. Which proves my point (sort of) about the importance of a strong team of leaders at the core, something they don't appear to have. 

RG, despite having promised much when he first arrived on the scene, has not done enough in my opinion to be perceived as a legitimate force. I wrote in a previous post about two years ago that he appeared to be infusing new energy into a tired old party and galvanising the youth. For a while, you got the impression that he could make up for lack of political experience with a fresh approach and new ideas. Of late, however, apart from the occasional sound-bite, there has been deafening silence from him on several major issues. Most times he seems inscrutable, even aloof. Perhaps most significantly, he has surrendered the platform of the young leader promising radical change. That space is now almost entirely occupied by AK. 

And what a story AK is. Just yesterday, there were reports that he was not ruling out the possibility of contesting the Lok Sabha election. While even a few months ago, such ambition would have been mocked, the Delhi elections last year changed everything. The AAP will, in one way or another, play a significant part in the national elections. I am not sure yet whether AK himself is a power-hungry charlatan or the real deal, but the advantage he has is, either by accident or brilliant political strategy, he has burst on the national scene at the best possible time. 

In a previous post, I wrote that the AAP has three main things going for it: An incumbent government in shambles, a charismatic leader in Kejriwal, and the tag of underdog; the little guy taking the fight to the big boys. The combination of these factors means you cannot rule out anything. 

The fact that AK is the newest kid on the block also means that people are, for the most part, intrigued. While the scrutiny will be intense, particularly now that he's a first-time Chief Minister, there's a very slim chance people will become disillusioned with him before the general elections in a few months. Put simply, he doesn't have enough time to screw up. Indeed, people may be more likely to give him a little slack, a little patience, a little more time, given the enormity of the task at hand. All these are precious commodities in politics. Moreover, there is no real pressure on him or the AAP to win a certain number of seats. Even with the result in Delhi, there is a sense that it would unrealistic to expect that to repeat nationally. The politics of India is too complex for that. And yet, with the pressure off, AAP and AK can, in a manner of speaking, go out and have a swing with the long handle. Every seat is a bonus. This is a luxury neither the Congress nor the BJP has. 

So here we are- NM, RG and AK. Let the battle commence. Six months is a long time in politics, particularly Indian politics, and we may well see someone else take the job in June. For now though, the focus is squarely on these three men. While each candidate is appealing in their own way, you can't help but think that the three of them combined would make for one decent leader. Jai Hind.

India Election Watch #Day 1

Yesterday, for the first time this year, we saw Priyanka Gandhi emerging out of hibernation to attend a "Congress party strategy meeting". It is an altogether predictable move, and follows a familiar script. In the late 90's, when Sonia Gandhi first emerged onto the scene as a politician in her own right, she appeared to rescue the party from the brink of oblivion. The real stroke of genius was that her decision was made to look like it had been made out of a dutiful widow's sense of duty rather than choice. 

In the run-up to the 2004 elections, both Rahul and Priyanka took turns to hit the campaign trail. As speculation mounted as to which of the two would enter full-time politics, Rahul, again the apparently reluctant Gandhi heir, eventually stood and won from Amethi. Ten years later, he has inevitably become the face of the Congress party, and Priyanka has largely stayed away from the spotlight. The thinking seems to be- reduce the overexposure and thereby increase the impact closer to the election. It also re-inforces the spin that for Priyanka, like for the rest of the family before her, politics is not a career, but a service to the nation she feels morally obliged to provide. 

In 2004 and 2009, this approach may have helped increase the margin of victory in Amethi and Rae Bareli, but was inconsequential in the rest of the country. This time, I suspect it will be inconsequential, period. From a PR perspective, my own feeling is that this is a mistake and shows how completely out of step with public opinion the Congress is. 

Two things that have become synonymous with the party in recent times are dynastic politics and corruption. Priyanka Vadra, albeit through no fault of her own, currently embodies both. Yes, she is both charismatic and articulate (and bearing a striking resemblance to Indira Gandhi can help. sometimes.) But the party's near-complete silence in the wake of allegations surrounding her own husband Robert Vadra's business dealings is a serious failing. 

Corruption is without doubt going to be front and centre of this year's election battle, and by pretending it is not an issue, the Congress is hammering the first nail in its own electoral coffin.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) Phenomenon

Even as 2013 slowly disappears into the mists of time, it's worth recalling one event that could yet be a pivotal moment in India's political history. On December 8th, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), contesting its first elections since being founded in November 2012, won 28 seats- 8 short of an outright majority. The ruling Congress party (still in power at the Centre) was wiped out, but ended up providing outside support for an AAP-led government. It was a stunning, entirely unforeseen result, but it may well be just the beginning. 

Sometimes a moment gives rise to an individual, and sometimes an individual creates a moment. In either case, the stars align and something special takes shape. Pope Francis came along at a time when the Catholic Church appeared to be at its lowest ebb, and his impact was instant. Similarly, the AAP and Arvind Kejriwal entered the scene just as the sad, final acts of arguably India’s most corrupt administration were playing out. 

The AAP has a number of things going for it- an incumbent government that is now almost fully consumed by its own incompetence and hubris, an enigmatic and charismatic leader, and the tag of underdog (who doesn't love an underdog?) These factors will never exist in unison again. Add to this mix the feeling, however fleeting, that the AAP represents a once-in-a-generation chance to rewrite India's history, and you have near-unstoppable momentum on your hands. 

The Aam Aadmi (literal translation: mango people, but also means ‘common man’; welcome to complex, multi-faceted India!) is a broad category of people that includes not just the nearly 70 per cent of the population that live outside of India’s cities, but also the world's largest middle class. I'm no expert on electoral processes, but I’m guessing if you're a political outfit that has even part of this demographic on your side, you'll win an election every time. 

Suddenly, there is not just a negative feeling of anti-incumbency, but a positive feeling of optimism. Significantly, it is an optimism tempered by reality. The party has gone to great lengths to emphasise both its lack of experience and resources in its bid to take on the two major national parties, the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It is the quintessential David vs Goliath scenario, except there are two Goliaths and so David appears twice as small. AAP’s genius lies in taking these apparent weaknesses and turning them into strengths, even virtues. And so, Arvind Kejriwal, a man who officially entered politics just over a year ago, is Chief Minister of a region at the very heart of India's power centre. Make no mistake, it is a journey of epic proportions, one that rivals Obama's journey to the White House. 

When you make your personal integrity and character an integral part of your politics, your survival is inextricably linked to your own actions. In a sense, this is Kejriwal's appeal. For a common man, he has displayed uncommon political nous. In between the grandstanding and soaring rhetoric, he has reset the political debate, changed both the music and the lyrics. That in itself is huge.

It is a sign of how far politics in India has fallen that a leader who presents himself as a public servant is seen as radical. Arvind Kejriwal has brought ideals and a fresh perspective to a political discourse that for too long has suffered from a poverty of both. He does not have all the answers, and there will no doubt be some mis-steps along the way. But the beauty of a vision for a better reality is that every once in a while it can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. The winds of change, usually no more than a soft evening breeze, are now blowing like a hurricane across the country, bringing with it an ineffable feeling of hope. 

Editor’s note: Over the next few weeks and months, this blog will attempt to chart the key developments in the run-up to the polls in April-May. Whatever the outcome, it's guaranteed to be an interesting ride. 
I hope you will join me.